In a response to the military takeover on July 26 in Niger, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has authorized the activation of its “standby force” for a potential armed intervention.
Despite favoring dialogue, ECOWAS acknowledges the need for a forceful action to counter the soldiers in power. However, experts are skeptical about the feasibility of this complex and risky military operation.
The standby force, historically deployed for peacekeeping missions in countries such as Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, and Gambia, lacks a clear mandate for specific missions.
Marc-André Boisvert, a researcher affiliated with the Center FrancoPaix, emphasizes that the establishment of such a force hinges on negotiations among member countries, which are hindered by mistrust.
Senegal, Benin, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire have expressed willingness to contribute troops, but internal criticism and hesitancy from other West African nations complicate the situation.
The African standby force was not designed for restoring constitutional order post-coup, revealing sovereignty concerns among African states.
Elie Tenenbaum from the French Institute of International Relations highlights the fragility and resource constraints of West African armies, posing challenges to mobilizing personnel.
The proposed intervention, requiring around 3,000 to 4,000 soldiers, faces obstacles due to the Nigerien army’s strength and existing deployments.
Mali and Burkina Faso caution against ECOWAS intervention, likening it to a declaration of war. Their military focus on countering armed jihadist groups on their own soil may undermine their capacity to support the Niamey regime.
Experts concur on the immense difficulty of executing such an operation in Niger, both in terms of logistical challenges and strategic considerations.
A land offensive entails traversing hostile territory, while an air operation presents concerns about modern anti-aircraft defenses.
The plan to seize Niamey airport and target the presidential palace prompts concerns of resistance from the coup’s instigators and the broader army.
The coup’s spearhead, the 700-strong presidential guard, is anticipated to resist fiercely, while the response of other Nigerien army units remains uncertain.
In summary, while ECOWAS strives to address the Niger coup through armed intervention, challenges abound. Negotiations, sovereignty concerns, limited resources, and operational complexities cast doubts on the mission’s feasibility and success.